2013 Wilderness Ranch Annual Real Estate Report
Our Annual Review of Real Estate sales in Wilderness Ranch & Boise County for 2013 and your 2014 forecast.
By: Paul Heim & The New View Team
At the start of 2013, Boise was named one of the top ten cities leading the national recovery by Forbes (as posted Feb 4th 2013), as well as one of the cities with the highest home price appreciation. But how did we fare throughout the year and where are we today, but more importantly, where will tomorrow take us?
Year at A Glance: The first and second quarter of 2013 showed continued growth and sales in both Ada and Boise Counties. While prices leveled off and a sense of normality returned to the market place, the third quarter showed a decrease. This was mostly due to the government shut down and sequestration which added both uncertainty and increased interest mortgage loan rates by 1% to 1.25% .
The end of the fourth quarter saw a small rebound. Average overall increase in value on a median priced home in 2013 was fairly similar for both Ada and Boise Counties, coming in at around 11%.
While the third quarter brought some price pressure on homes under 150k (mainly due to higher interest rates) we saw significant hurdles overcome in homes priced over 300k and upwards to 1 million. The following graph shows the average sales per year based on price range. As shown below, home sales of higher value were up significantly in Boise County. (see chart below)
GRAPH OF UNIT SALES IN BOISE COUNTY LAST 5 YEARS BASED ON PRICE RANGES
Boise County Trending and Sales compared to Wilderness Ranch Properties Detailed in Following Graphs.
Boise County Statistics:
• 78 Units Sold in Boise County 2013 compared to 157 Units Listed about a 50% absorption rate.
• However homes in the 250k and above range showed a much higher absorption rate.
• 14 short sale listed 4 sold, 1pending
• 17 bank owned listed, 11 sold & 4 pending,
• 3 HUD listings, 2 sold & 1 pending
• Boise County Overall Average List Price was $183,375 per sq ft $90.22
• Boise County Overall Average Sold Price $177,619 per sq ft $86.70
• Wilderness Ranch had 27 Active Home Listings
• 20 homes Sold and
• 4 Pending Sale prior to Jan 2014
• Makes an absorption rate of 73% roughly and if you count homes hat went pending 2013 but close in 2014 it is closer to 85%
• Average List Price in WR $236,145 and
• Average price per square foot list $99.52
• Average Sold Price $230,997
• Sold Price per sq ft $97.54
• Highest Sold Price per sq ft was $166.12 and lowest was $39.15.
WR Comprised nearly a third of all the home sales in Boise County and on average continues to maintain a higher absorption rate and garner a higher sales price per square foot. The next closest neighborhood by comparison to WR would be Osprey, which generally sells at a higher price per sq ft. However it has a minimal amount of existing residences by contrast, hence therefore has a smaller turnover rate by proportion.
General News and Local Economic Forecast:
• As many are aware, the Warm Springs has reopened. This has helped Boise County and especially the Idaho City economy and will continue to do so.
• As the large mining operation in Placerville grows (as is anticipated) this will also have an impact on Idaho City, as workers will no doubt frequent Id City for goods and services as well as increase rental rates.
• In addition, the new Medical Family Practice by Dr. Matthew Nelson known as ‘Mores Creek Family Medicine’ was a well needed addition to the county.
The Federal Reserve has determined to decrease the ‘Quantitative Easing’, whereby the Government buys back its own bonds, which the rumor alone resulted in an interest rate hike of about 1% for mortgages in second half of 2013. When this does occur (and trust me it will eventually), then you can expect to see interest rates increase. As of end January 2014 the Feds have unanimously agreed to cut back from 70 billion to 60 Billion a decrease of about 10 billion. Depending on how this affects the market, and their continued endeavor to diminish the easing, we can potentially see mortgage rates go to 5 or 6% by end of year and in the next two years we can easily see 8%+.
While this may be good overall for the US dollar in the long run and no doubt for people intending to live on interest from savings (because currently that is near zero) it will have a serious affect on real property sales for a period as it lowers buying power.
Here are two good source articles for reference:
Quantitative easing Federal Reserve announcement
Citing Growth, Fed Again Cuts Monthly Bond Purchases
Prediction: How will this affect or housing market in the year to come? Once people realize and accept that the trend on interest rates may be a steady climb upwards, I forecast that it will initially create a wave of buyers trying to beat the rising tide. Following that we will settle into a mental adjustment period where sales may go flat, and as laws of supply and demand go, can affect values. The duration period to pull out of something like that is difficult to predict at this point.
You can liken the adjustment to gas prices. Remember the first time you paid $2 per gallon? We all had a fit, then we saw gas rise to nearly $5 per gallon. Now we would dance for a chance at $2. I get giddy when it drops down near $3. People will always want and need to buy or sell, and eventually they will accept and settle in to the current norm of the day.
This spring may afford a window of opportunity. If you were considering making a move, upsizing or downsizing, then you may want to evaluate your options today.
Please feel free to call or write us with questions. We are always happy to help with information or to answer any questions.
Don’t forget to visit http://www.WildernessRanchHomes.com to see what is happening in your neighborhood. Also If you are interested in East Boise County in general you may visit http://www.BoiseCountyHomes.com