Archive for the ‘Boise County properties’ Category

Wilderness Ranch 2014 Report and 2015 Forecast

January 29, 2015

stats2015coverThe Annual review of Real Estate sales in Wilderness Ranch and East Boise County for the 2014 year and the 2015 Forecast.

By: Paul Heim & Darcelle Sander of The New View Team at Silvercreek Realty Group

News and Headlines: Boise has made the top ten for best places to live in many polls, forums and magazines over the years and this year Boise wasn’t left out. Time rated Boise #1 out of Nine cities. The criteria for cities to make the list included a thriving economy, a booming cultural scene, quality health care, and a growing university.

You can also download this report directly here.

Year at a Glance: The first two quarters of the year had a lot of momentum but things across the valley seemed to go into a small lull late July through early November. Value increases in the Treasure Valley spiked the first half of the year then we saw some decline in prices the second half, but overall finished about 2013 values.

Oddly enough, just following the midterm elections the market picked up considerable speed and Nov and Dec finished pretty strong. In fact most Agents and Title Companies said it was one of the busiest Decembers they had seen. Low gas prices and a drop in interest rates may contribute to a strong spring.

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East Boise County Statistics
report02•    There were 74 home sales in 2014 out of 136 listings.  Close to a 50% absorption rate and on par with 2013
•    Of which 4 were Short Sales
•    13 of the homes sold were Foreclosed Home sales (distressed)
•    13 Current Pending Sales as of Jan 8th 2015
•    Highest priced sale $479,000 in Osprey and lowest priced $30,000  with 204 sq ft
•    Currently 40 active listings as of this report
•    Average Days on Market (DOM) 100 days
•    Average list price to actual sale price was only 5% difference

We were privileged to be a party to 8 of the sales transactions in Wilderness Ranch in 2014 and we have two current pending sales from 2014 slated to close mid Jan 2015.

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Wilderness Ranch Statistics
•    There were 14 Home Sales out of a Total of 23 Listings.  Counting pending sales that is an 80% absorption rate.
•    Zero Short Sales.
•    4 of the homes sold were Foreclosed (distressed).
•    4 Current Pending Sales as of Jan 8th 2015.
•    Highest Priced sale was $309,900 and lowest priced sale was $100,000 (bank owned).
•    Average non distressed home value was $236,356 .
•    With a average price per square foot of $118.36.
•    Average list price to sale was 4%.
•    Currently there are 5 active home listings.
•    Average DOM, 98 days.

2015 Forecast:

report1•    What a year 2014 was, a bit of a roller coaster at times it seemed.   Overall growth in values in the Treasure Valley increased from 5 to 7% on average depending on location.  The biggest gift of the year was the falling gas prices.  How and when this will this affect the economy and Real Estate is yet to be seen.

•    Sustained lower interest rates will hopefully make for a solid Spring.  However the low interest rates can’t last forever, sooner or later they will start to climb.

•    Boise has seen a lot of commercial growth in expectation of its influx of population.  This will continue to help the Boise area market.

•    Expect New Construction to pick up this year as the price gap between existing homes and new homes narrow.

There is much rumor that HUD, Fannie and Freddy may loosen some on lending standards and qualifications this year.   

•    They are also lowering PMI fees (Post Mortgage Insurance) from 1.35 to .85 as it was a very high cost on FHA loans.  This may increase the median sales price as more people will be able to qualify for a slightly higher priced home. However here is hopping they don’t let lending become too loose again.  But it is the government so I guess we can trust them right?  As an example: on a 200k loan that would be equivalent to a monthly savings on your mortgage of $83.00.

•    There may be attempts (as rumor goes) to try to repeal or amend all/or parts of the Frank Dodd Act.  If that does occur then only time will tell how that will ripple over to the housing market.  It could create a slightly more speculative real estate market which could be a blessing or a curse depending on your situation.

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General News and Local Economic Forecast:  
We saw some long time residents move on this year like Tim & Fran Schaaf, Rich and Kari Doran, Steve and Karen Byrne, Tracy and Kevin Hocevar and they will be missed.   But we also received a number of new residents that will add to the overall community and become new friends and neighbors.

Late in the Spring we will be scheduling/planning a welcoming party for new residents.  Everyone will be invited to attend.  This will allow you a chance to get to meet them and them you.  Stay tuned for details!

If you ever have any questions or care to know where your value is currently, please always feel free to contact us anytime.  Always happy to help!

To stay up to speed remember to visit www.WildernessRanchHomes.com and for Boise County in general visit www.BoiseCountyHomes.com and if you get a chance stop in and please give us a like on facebook www.facebook.com/WildernessRanchHomes .

 

WILDERNESS RANCH ANNUAL REAL ESTATE REPORT FOR 2013 SALES

February 12, 2014

2013 Wilderness Ranch Annual Real Estate Report
Our Annual Review of Real Estate sales in Wilderness Ranch & Boise County for 2013 and your 2014 forecast.

By: Paul Heim & The New View Team

At the start of 2013, Boise was named one of the top ten cities leading the national recovery by Forbes (as posted Feb 4th 2013), as well as one of the cities with the highest home price appreciation.  But how did we fare throughout the year and where are we today, but more importantly, where will tomorrow take us?

Year at A Glance: The first and second quarter of 2013 showed continued growth and sales in both Ada and Boise Counties. While prices leveled off and a sense of normality returned to the market place, the third quarter showed a decrease.  This was mostly due to the government shut down and sequestration which added both uncertainty and increased interest mortgage loan rates by 1% to 1.25% .

The end of the fourth quarter saw a small rebound.  Average overall increase in value on a median priced home in 2013 was fairly similar for both Ada and Boise Counties, coming in at around 11%.

While the third quarter brought some price pressure on homes under 150k (mainly due to higher interest rates) we saw significant hurdles overcome in homes priced over 300k and upwards to 1 million. The following graph shows the average sales per year based on price range.  As shown below, home sales of higher value were up significantly in Boise County.   (see chart below)

GRAPH OF UNIT SALES IN BOISE COUNTY LAST 5 YEARS BASED ON PRICE RANGES
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Boise County Trending and Sales compared to Wilderness Ranch Properties Detailed in Following Graphs.

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BULLET POINTS
Boise County Statistics:
•    78 Units Sold in Boise County 2013 compared to 157 Units Listed about a 50% absorption rate.
•    However homes in the 250k and above range showed a much higher absorption rate.
•    14 short sale listed 4 sold, 1pending
•    17 bank owned listed, 11 sold & 4 pending,
•    3 HUD listings, 2 sold & 1 pending
•    Boise County Overall Average List Price was $183,375 per sq ft $90.22
•    Boise County Overall Average Sold Price $177,619 per sq ft $86.70

WR STATS:
•    Wilderness Ranch had 27 Active Home Listings
•    20 homes Sold and
•    4 Pending Sale prior to Jan 2014
•    Makes an absorption rate of 73% roughly and if you count homes hat went pending 2013 but close in 2014 it is closer to 85%
•    Average List Price in WR $236,145 and
•    Average price per square foot list $99.52
•    Average Sold Price $230,997
•    Sold Price per sq ft $97.54
•  Highest Sold Price per sq ft was $166.12 and lowest was $39.15.

WR Comprised nearly a third of all the home sales in Boise County and on average continues to maintain a higher absorption rate and garner a higher sales price per square foot.  The next closest neighborhood by comparison to WR would be Osprey, which generally sells at a higher price per sq ft.  However it has a minimal amount of existing residences by contrast, hence therefore has a smaller turnover rate by proportion.

General News and Local Economic Forecast:
•    As many are aware, the Warm Springs has reopened. This has helped Boise County and especially the Idaho City economy and   will continue to do so.

•    As the large mining operation in Placerville grows (as is anticipated) this will also have an impact on Idaho City, as workers will no doubt frequent Id City for goods and services as well as increase rental rates.

•    In addition, the new Medical Family Practice by Dr. Matthew Nelson known as ‘Mores Creek Family Medicine’ was a well needed addition to the county.

2014 Forecast:
The Federal Reserve has determined to decrease the ‘Quantitative Easing’, whereby the Government buys back its own bonds, which the rumor alone resulted in an interest rate hike of about 1% for mortgages in second half of 2013.  When this does occur (and trust me it will eventually), then you can expect to see interest rates increase.  As of end January 2014 the Feds have unanimously agreed to cut back from 70 billion to 60 Billion a decrease of about 10 billion.   Depending on how this affects the market, and their continued endeavor to diminish the easing, we can potentially see mortgage rates go to 5 or 6% by end of year and in the next two years we can easily see 8%+.

While this may be good overall for the US dollar in the long run and no doubt for people intending to live on interest from savings (because currently that is near zero) it will have a serious affect on real property sales for a period as it lowers buying power.

Here are two good source articles for reference:

Quantitative easing Federal Reserve announcement
http://www.knoe.com/story/24575935/quantitative-easing-federal-reserve-announcement

Citing Growth, Fed Again Cuts Monthly Bond Purchases
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/30/business/federal-reserve-policy-decision.html?ref=quantitativeeasing&_r=0

Prediction: How will this affect or housing market in the year to come?  Once people realize and accept that the trend on interest rates may be a steady climb upwards, I forecast that it will initially create a wave of buyers trying to beat the rising tide.  Following that we will settle into a mental adjustment period where sales may go flat, and as laws of supply and demand go, can affect values.  The duration period to pull out of something like that is difficult to predict at this point.

You can liken the adjustment to gas prices.  Remember the first time you paid $2 per gallon?  We all had a fit, then we saw gas rise to nearly $5 per gallon.  Now we would dance for a chance at $2.  I get giddy when it drops down near $3.  People will always want and need to buy or sell, and eventually they will accept and settle in to the current norm of the day.

This spring may afford a window of opportunity.  If you were considering making a move, upsizing or downsizing, then you may want to evaluate your options today.

Please feel free to call or write us with questions.  We are always happy to help with information or to answer any questions.

Don’t forget to visit http://www.WildernessRanchHomes.com to see what is happening in your neighborhood.  Also If you are interested in East Boise County in general you may visit http://www.BoiseCountyHomes.com

2012 Wilderness Ranch Idaho Annual Real Estate Sales Report

February 4, 2013

NewViewFBLogo                                                                     

Our Annual Review of Real Estate sales in Wilderness Ranch for 2012 and your 2013 forecast.

By: Paul Heim & The New View Team

Wow what a year!  While I had forecasted in last year’s report that we had passed the bell curve and would see an increase in market values for 2012, the market surpassed what anyone had expected or predicted.  We saw an unprecedented turn around in the Treasure Valley real estate market.  Overall values increased anywhere from 10% to 15%. These gains were primarily in homes under $350,000 but higher priced homes benefited also.

What were the causes and effects?  What we witnessed was a market correction.  It showed that homes had become undervalued.  I like to use the Circuit City analogy.  ‘Best Buy won the war’, … however I would bet Circuit City had way more customers the last four months they were open during  their  ‘Going Out of Business Sale’.  Best Buy had no way to compete with their prices those last months, but after their biggest competitor was finally gone, they knew they would see a spike in their growth and profit.

Likewise, as the banks ‘Going Out of Business Sales’ (foreclosed homes) were nearing a completion, the average seller was not able to compete with these prices.  We then entered a period of contraction.  This simply means we had more buyers than available listed properties.  Supply and demand rules ensued.

With the low inventory of listings on the market, we often dealt with multiple bids in the Valley when homes were priced competitively.  But how did Boise County and Wilderness Ranch fair in comparison? 

In 2012 East Boise County finally crossed an important barrier.  For 18 months we had no sales over $230,000 and that was causing difficulty in appraisals.  Not that the value wasn’t there in higher priced homes, just that appraisers couldn’t validate them for the lenders and the lenders need the appraisals to issue the loans.   The New View Team was able to complete two high-end sales (Boise County, but not in WR) very early spring, (cash deals) that helped remove that barrier and set precedence for every other sale and refinance that occurred moving forward in 2012.

Boise County tends to lag behind the Boise Valley (Ada County) by six to twelve months typically.   The Boise Valley saw a noticeable turn in the market starting the fourth quarter of 2011 so we anticipated it to carry over to Boise County by spring, but as summer set in it happened better than anyone had expected.  No complaints here!

Here are some graphs to illustrate key trends in the Boise Valley and East Boise County Real Estate Markets

Idaho Mountain Real Estate Stats

Homes in Idaho

How home sales compared in Boise County Idaho and Wilderness Ranch 2003 through 2012

2013 Forecast:

Boise is still seeing a contraction as developers try to re-group and get approval on new parcels through the hoops of planning and zoning for building.

I expect to see more homeowners (who were previously tight on the current value vs. what they owe) attempt to list in 2013, now that values have increased.  Nationally, home prices are predicted to increase 1% to 3%, but I predict Treasure Valley real estate increases to be somewhere between 3% to 5% conservatively.

In part, this projected increase will be due to a rebound in land values, which affects ‘over all’ home values.

Boise County, I believe, will see the START of a land recovery in Spring of 2013.  Whether it will do as good as housing did in 2012 is yet to be seen.  If you are looking to invest, then NOW may be a good opportunity to consider land, prior to a potential rebound.

I would suspect we will see more building and new construction homes taking place in Boise County in 2013.

There are some other exciting things happening in Boise County potentially for 2013 and we will keep you updated with them as the year progresses.  Some highlights are:

–          The opening of the Hot Springs in Idaho City which will help this end of the county economically.

–          Dr Matt Nelson’s new Family Practice office, which will be located directly across from the old Rock’s Lodge.

If you have any real estate related questions, please feel free to call or email us anytime, or visit our website!  We would love to hear from you.

Paul Heim & the New View Team

(208) 344-5700 – office

(208) 794-8175 – Paul Mobile

http://www.NewViewRE.com