Our Annual Review of Real Estate sales in Wilderness Ranch for 2012 and your 2013 forecast.
By: Paul Heim & The New View Team
Wow what a year! While I had forecasted in last year’s report that we had passed the bell curve and would see an increase in market values for 2012, the market surpassed what anyone had expected or predicted. We saw an unprecedented turn around in the Treasure Valley real estate market. Overall values increased anywhere from 10% to 15%. These gains were primarily in homes under $350,000 but higher priced homes benefited also.
What were the causes and effects? What we witnessed was a market correction. It showed that homes had become undervalued. I like to use the Circuit City analogy. ‘Best Buy won the war’, … however I would bet Circuit City had way more customers the last four months they were open during their ‘Going Out of Business Sale’. Best Buy had no way to compete with their prices those last months, but after their biggest competitor was finally gone, they knew they would see a spike in their growth and profit.
Likewise, as the banks ‘Going Out of Business Sales’ (foreclosed homes) were nearing a completion, the average seller was not able to compete with these prices. We then entered a period of contraction. This simply means we had more buyers than available listed properties. Supply and demand rules ensued.
With the low inventory of listings on the market, we often dealt with multiple bids in the Valley when homes were priced competitively. But how did Boise County and Wilderness Ranch fair in comparison?
In 2012 East Boise County finally crossed an important barrier. For 18 months we had no sales over $230,000 and that was causing difficulty in appraisals. Not that the value wasn’t there in higher priced homes, just that appraisers couldn’t validate them for the lenders and the lenders need the appraisals to issue the loans. The New View Team was able to complete two high-end sales (Boise County, but not in WR) very early spring, (cash deals) that helped remove that barrier and set precedence for every other sale and refinance that occurred moving forward in 2012.
Boise County tends to lag behind the Boise Valley (Ada County) by six to twelve months typically. The Boise Valley saw a noticeable turn in the market starting the fourth quarter of 2011 so we anticipated it to carry over to Boise County by spring, but as summer set in it happened better than anyone had expected. No complaints here!
Here are some graphs to illustrate key trends in the Boise Valley and East Boise County Real Estate Markets
- How home sales compared in Boise County Idaho and Wilderness Ranch 2003 through 2012
Boise is still seeing a contraction as developers try to re-group and get approval on new parcels through the hoops of planning and zoning for building.
I expect to see more homeowners (who were previously tight on the current value vs. what they owe) attempt to list in 2013, now that values have increased. Nationally, home prices are predicted to increase 1% to 3%, but I predict Treasure Valley real estate increases to be somewhere between 3% to 5% conservatively.
In part, this projected increase will be due to a rebound in land values, which affects ‘over all’ home values.
Boise County, I believe, will see the START of a land recovery in Spring of 2013. Whether it will do as good as housing did in 2012 is yet to be seen. If you are looking to invest, then NOW may be a good opportunity to consider land, prior to a potential rebound.
I would suspect we will see more building and new construction homes taking place in Boise County in 2013.
There are some other exciting things happening in Boise County potentially for 2013 and we will keep you updated with them as the year progresses. Some highlights are:
– The opening of the Hot Springs in Idaho City which will help this end of the county economically.
– Dr Matt Nelson’s new Family Practice office, which will be located directly across from the old Rock’s Lodge.
If you have any real estate related questions, please feel free to call or email us anytime, or visit our website! We would love to hear from you.
Paul Heim & the New View Team
(208) 344-5700 – office
(208) 794-8175 – Paul Mobile